THE target for the Church of England to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2030 will not be met, a forecast in a new progress report has stated.

The report, to be discussed in the General Synod this month, draws on forecasts carried out by the consultancy group Arup. This work estimates that by 2034 — when the Church’s net-zero carbon programme is scheduled to end — an emissions reduction of approximately 50 per cent is possible. It says: “If effort is embedded into day-to-day operations and continues beyond 2034 through to 2050 (and the UK Government’s own climate change target) . . . getting within the 90 per cent reduction threshold set by the Routemap to Net Zero is possible.”

The 2030 target was set by General Synod in 2020, after it voted to amend a motion setting a deadline of 2045 (News, 14 February 2020). Among those expressing scepticism at the time was Carl Hughes, now chair of the Archbishops’ Council finance committee, who warned that it was “unrealistic”.

The new report states: “Based on the current and forecast levels of investment out to 2034, the forecast reduction by 2030 is around 29 per cent from the 2023 level. . . Such a rate of emissions reduction equates to 3.7 per cent per year and this is consistent with the rates being forecast by other similar organisations pursuing similarly ambitious net-zero carbon ambitions.”

It says that the forecast “should not be seen as a failure, but as an acknowledgement that making meaningful and lasting reductions in carbon emissions is hard and requires sustained action over the long-term which, if it is to be successful, requires parallel investment in capital works, as well as human capacity and skills development to enable all parts of the Church to take action”.