AS SO often in the new year, it is hope, not optimism, that Christians must rely on. On the international scene, the cease-fire in the Gaza Strip remains, at the time of writing, one of the brighter indications. The question is whether this can be turned into a lasting peace deal that leads to reconstruction and a better future for the Palestinians there and also in the West Bank. Much depends not only on the United States but also on Saudi Arabia in convincing Israel that it is in its interests to be a better neighbour to the Arab population of the region; and this requires at the very least the taming of Hamas, preferably by talking, and a concerted effort to limit Iranian interference. President Trump’s commitment to this project is hard to gauge, given his mercurial attitude to policy. Nevertheless, the constructive relationship of the US with the new Syrian government is a sign that positive news can come out of the Middle East.

The story is less encouraging in Ukraine. To believe that President Trump’s apparent affinity with his Russian counterpart will pull something out of the hat which is positive for the population loyal to Kyiv is to have high hopes. It seems likely that they will have to swallow their national pride, despite the best efforts of their European allies. The Trump evaluation of Europe as heading for “civilisational erasure” is disturbing, not least because of the supposedly remedial measures that fear can promote. Western Europe’s post-1945 consensus on civilised values was arrived at because unscrupulous nationalism had proved repeatedly disastrous. When nationalism is joined to unrealistic expectations, as it tends to be in the UK, whose hard power has dwindled and whose soft power its politicians tend to undervalue and under-cherish, continued disappointment with national performance looks set to continue, whether overseen by Sir Keir Starmer or not.

For both Europe and the United States, the background is the shift in global and economic power to China and the BRICS nations, accompanied by economic stagnation in Europe and more dynamism, but also high debt, in the US, not to mention environmental recklessness. The wise men came from the East, and today’s wise people look at the technical advancement there with not only admiration but nervousness. Chinese Christians, as a new book shows (review here), are making a vigorous contribution to the life of the faith in the UK — a faith that is growing in China, but regarded warily by the regime and subject to crackdowns. These adherents have found the pearl of great price and may indeed give all that they have for it. The same is true for Christians in Asian and African countries where profession of the faith is most perilous. Of all the lessons from global trends, this may be the most salutary to ponder at this time of the year.