FOR political parties as well as voters, lifelong loyalties can be hard to break. In 1997, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who were, at the time, natural allies, had an unofficial non-aggression pact. This fizzled out after Tony Blair won a landslide — and the divide widened still further when Charles Kennedy opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In 2010, a progressive alliance was fleetingly back on the agenda as Gordon Brown battled to form a partnership with what he called “the Liberals”. Had he succeeded, this just might have stopped Brexit and prevented the need for crushing austerity. But it was not to be. Today, the prospect of a happy coalition between voters and parties who want to stand against the rising tide of the Right seems an unlikely prospect — and that means that Reform UK is likely to benefit.

Yet, as the electorate prepares to vote in next week’s local and mayoral elections in England, and in the Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections, there are indications that changes may be afoot. In February, research by YouGov found that a substantial proportion of Lib Dem and Green voters (58 and 57 per cent respectively) were prepared to vote Labour tactically to stop Reform winning in their constituency. At the same time, 77 per cent of Labour voters said that they would cast a tactical vote for a Lib Dem or a Green to prevent a Reform win. Perhaps most interestingly, bearing in mind the unpopularity of the Conservatives in many polls, in places where only they or Reform stood a realistic chance of winning, 31 per cent of the voters said that they would favour the Conservatives, and only 24 per cent Reform.

What might all this mean for Christians concerned about a worrying rise of so-called “Christian” nationalism? There are, of course, counter narratives: hope can be drawn from episodes such as the recent push-back in Liverpool, where an anti-racist counter-demonstration inspired by church leaders across Merseyside thwarted an anti-immigration “Walk with Jesus” rally. The phenomenon is, nevertheless, real, and the voices appropriating religious language to champion causes antithetical to gospel values are loud and hard to ignore.

This time next week, we shall know whether Labour has been given the pasting in the polls that has been widely predicted. At the time of writing, Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership seems to be in the balance. The reality of local elections is that they are almost always treated by voters and political commentators alike as a bellwether for the national mood — and that can produce frustrating results for those striving to effect change at the grass-roots. Every community is different, with its own challenges and needs. Our readers will quite naturally cast their votes as they choose. That’s democracy. Perhaps, though, there is a case for considering a break with old habits and tribal loyalties and voting tactically, if it is going to serve the greater good.