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This pandemic is a kairos moment

by
05 April 2020

We will need to draw breath and review our fundamental values, says Greg Smith

PA

A man wearing a face mask walks past the Bank of England on Friday

A man wearing a face mask walks past the Bank of England on Friday

THERE has yet to be a pandemic that is an existential risk to the human species. In the worst recorded pandemic to date, the “Black Death” of the 14th century, about one third of Europe’s population are estimated to have died. The population in England in 1400 was perhaps half what it had been 100 years earlier.

Even on the most pessimistic modelling, and without effective measures to control the spread of infection, the current Covid-19 pandemic will have only minor effects on demography. While mathematical models predict anything from 20,000 to 250,000 deaths in the UK directly attributable to the virus, it is worth remembering that there are approximately 500,000 deaths a year in normal times from a variety of causes. There is a risk, of course, that at some time in the future a more cataclysmic pandemic may sweep the globe; other apocalyptic risks are available.

For many of us, especially if we operate in the faith, community, or small business sectors, the idea of “risk assessment” is at best a necessary hassle, which we undertake grudgingly to stay within the law.

At the other extreme, insurance companies and epidemiologists have developed a highly abstract science for calculating and mitigating risk. Indeed, the academic and public health community were fully aware of the risks associated with a viral pandemic. With international public health networks in place, and the unprecedented ease of global information-sharing, one could argue that national leaders and policy makers should have been better informed, better prepared, and quicker to take appropriate action.

We are where we are, however, and one can only hope and pray that unprecedented measures will help the global community get back in control of the epidemic in months rather than years.

From the point of view of governments, the major risks can be summarised as: loss of control and then being held responsible for catastrophic failure of policy. The potential breakdown of healthcare systems at the peak of the epidemic is a nightmare for healthcare managers — doubly so in the UK, where one of the few “sacreds” that is still shared across society is the NHS. Politicians must dread the risk to political and social stability.

Economically, the situation has gone beyond risk; it is already a cataclysmic shock to world and national economies, and the surprisingly radical emergency policies that have been deployed are largely unassessed risks of great magnitude.

 

THE current pandemic is clearly a kairos moment, when the whole world will need to draw breath and review our fundamental values. When Boris Johnson is forced to admit that there is indeed such a thing as society, we may find hope of a pendulum swing away from neoliberal individualism, where risk is increasingly privatised, towards a politics of the common good. Alan Rusbridger may be right to suggest that, “amid our fear, we’re rediscovering utopian hopes of a connected world”.

As individual human beings, most of us are not very good at assessing risks. This often results in irrational behaviour: for example, I am terrified of air travel (despite knowing that no other mode of travel results in fewer casualties per passenger mile), while also continuing the much more dangerous habit of cycling on urban roads. The rumour mill of social media only exaggerates irrational fear, stoking the current panic-buying.

Yet, the coronavirus does present a real risk which is beyond our personal control. For most of us, there is a substantial probability of a miserable week or so of sickness, from which we will recover. For those of us who are older, suffering from underlying health conditions, poorer, or working on the frontline in hospitals, the risk of dying is much increased. Sadly, for some of us it will reduce our “healthy life years”.

In the long term, of course, we are all dead, and one thing that the virus is doing is making us aware of our own mortality, prompting us to consider and talk about the reality of death in ways that we have been reluctant to do in ordinary time.

 

ONE would hope that Christians, especially as we prepare to celebrate Easter, are in a better place to cope than most. People of faith are those who have taken a punt on the risk that this life is not the end. As people of hope, we may be well placed to offer significant and sacrificial compassionate service.

But can our faith withstand the test of fear, chaos, and the threat of death? There are attempts by some to tell the world what God is doing through this pandemic: as judgement on sin, as warning to repent, as an opportunity to pray for signs and wonders of healing, or as a harbinger of revival.

Yet, there are no easy theodicies; as Tom Wright argues, it is mainly a season for lament. Epidemics merely show that the world is not the way that God intended it to be, the way we would wish it to be, or even the way it shall be in the age to come.

Fear and grief are real, but to stay too long in the Book of Lamentations, and to tarry indefinitely at the foot of the cross, runs the risk of forgetting this: it may be Friday, but Sunday’s coming.

 

Greg Smith is an honorary as­sociate research fellow at the William Temple Foundation.

This article was first published on the blog of the William Temple Foundation.

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