THE evidence for global warming is "unequivocal", and
it is "extremely likely" that human activity has been the dominant
cause of the phenomenon since the mid-20th century, a new UN report
concludes.
The fifth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) is based on about 9000 peer-reviewed
scientific papers, and 50,000 comments from expert reviewers (Comment 27
September).
Published on Friday last week, the summary of the
report,Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis,states that:
"Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, and since 1950 many
changes have been observed throughout the climate system that are
unprecedented over decades to millennia."
It is "extremely likely that human influence has been
the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th
century", the report states. "Extremely likely" refers to a
probability of 95 to 100 per cent.
The Professor of Climate and Environmental Physics at
the University of Berlin, Dr Thomas Stocker, who co-chairs the
working group that produced the report, said: "Continued emissions
of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all
components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will
require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse-gas
emissions."
The group has predicted that the earth will warm by
more than 1.5°C by the end of the 21st century, relative to
1850-1900, possibly by more than 2°C. Sea levels are ex- pected to
rise at a faster rate than that seen in the past 40 years, by
between 26 and 81cm. In the Copenhagen Accord in 2009, governments
promised to prevent the rise of global temperature by 2°C above
pre-industrial levels.
Professor Stocker warned that the effects of climate
change would persist "for many centuries", even if emissions were
to stop.
The chairman of the Mission and Public Affairs
Council, Philip Fletcher, said last Friday that the report made it
"clearer than ever that climate change is happening; that we, the
human race, are largely or completely responsible for that; and
that we really ought to proceed on that basis rather than just
hoping that it will all turn out to be wrong."
The Church of England is committed to reducing its
carbon footprint by 80 per cent by 2050, with an interim target of
42 per cent by 2020. St Michael and All Angels, in Withington,
Gloucester, is believed to be the first zero-carbon church in the
UK, since the PCC took measures that included installing a biomass
boiler and solar panels (Real Life, 1 October
2010).
Mr Fletcher said: "There are things we do well, and
things we do badly, but we have been seeking to work at shrinking
our own footprint for some time. We know that we should be doing
more. . . We are taking it seriously, and we know we are part of
the problem."
On Friday, Christian Aid's senior climate-change
adviser, Dr Alison Doig, said: "As a developed, industrialised
country, the UK has to lead the way by ending our dependence on
fossil fuels, and investing in clean, renewable sources of energy,
which we are fortunate enough to be blessed with in the UK."