TALK of diplomacy conjures up images of discreet conversations
between knowledgeable men and women, drawing on years of
experience. Whether this sort of statesmanship ever existed, it is
in sharp contrast to the almost cartoon-like negotiations over
Syria in the past week. The United States is still holding the
threat of military action over the heads of President Assad and his
government. On Wednesday, President Obama made the use of chemical
weapons in Syria a domestic affair - an essential move if the
American public is to be engaged. "Our ideals and principles, as
well as our national security, are at stake in Syria, along with
our leadership of a world," he stated. At the same time, the late
arrival of Russia into the fray has effected a significant shift in
attitude in the Syrian leadership. The memory of Saddam Hussein is
still fresh. It is unlikely that the United States will believe
much of what Syria pledges to do. Given the US public's
ambivalence, however, negotiation is now being favoured over force.
The consolation is that negotiation, with or without a little
coercion, is almost certain to be more successful in destroying the
Syrian stocks of chemical weapons than air strikes would have been,
especially as the Syrians have had plenty of warning to disperse
their supplies.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion in all this that too much
attention has been given to "ideals and principles", such as
President Obama's "red line" with regard to the use chemical
weapons. In their efforts to rally support for military action,
before the Russian alternative was suggested, the President's team
circulated photos and videos of child victims of the alleged
chemical attacks. At any point during the Syrian conflict,
similarly moving footage could have been produced. The implication
is that it is acceptable to kill children and their parents -
100,000 of them - in mundane ways, catching them in the crossfire,
bombing their homes and villages, forcing them on to the road as
another winter approaches, just so long as Western protocols about
particular sorts of weapons are observed. President Obama said:
"America is not the world's policeman. Terrible things happen
across the globe, and it is beyond our means to right every wrong.
But when, with modest effort and risk, we can stop children from
being gassed to death and thereby make our own children safer over
the long run, I believe we should act." The question is raised:
might the same modest effort stop the bombing of children? The
greatest mistake in the present crisis would be for the Western
nations to accept a face-saving climb-down over chemical weapons,
and then leave the Syrians to their fate. If the Russian-backed
move to remove chemical stocks succeeds, it shows that a concerted
but peaceful approach - with a "modest effort and risk" from the US
and elsewhere - has the potential to bring the Syrian conflict to
an end.